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This contribution applies the “mean temperature of the catch” (MTC) concept of Cheung et al. ( Nature  497:365–368, 2013) to fish catch data for Lake Peipsi, Estonia/Russia, covering the years 1931 to 2019. The preferred temperature of each of the ten target fish species was obtained from the literature, and combined with the species-specific catch data to obtain MTC values for each year. The analysis of the MTC time series thus obtained with a segmented regression yielded two trend lines, one horizontal at 14.5 °C (1931–1986), and the other (1987–2019) ascending with a slope 0.85 °C·decade −1 . Overall, the segmented regression model explains over half of the variance of the MTC data set (multiple R 2  = 0.53; adjusted R 2  = 0.51). Lake surface water temperatures correlate with MTC, even though weakly (r = 0.30), when considering a 2-year time lag. The fish community of the shallow Lake Peipsi reacts more strongly to temperature changes than marine ecosystems so far studied using the MTC.

Using the “mean temperature of the catch” to assess fish community responses to warming in a temperate lake