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Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warmingusing a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions modelsas input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": populationp, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energycarbonization c. The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however,and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. Here, it is shown boththeoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can beconsidered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it isunnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population andstandard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through aself-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energyresources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economicproduction - or p times g - through a time-independent factor of 9.7 +/- 0.3milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint,and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, pointstowards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios forimplementation in GCMs.

Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?