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Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence.

Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections