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Reducing the damage due to landslide dam failures requires the prediction of flood hydrographs. Although progressive failure is one of the main failure modes of landslide dams, no prediction method is available. This study develops a method for predicting progressive failure. The proposed method consists of the progressive failure model and overtopping erosion model. The progressive failure model can reproduce the collapse progression from a dam toe to predict the longitudinal dam shape and reservoir water level when the reservoir water overflows. The overtopping erosion model uses these predicted values as the new initial conditions and reproduces the dam erosion processes due to an overtopping flow in order to predict a flood hydrograph after the reservoir water overflows. The progressive failure model includes physical models representing the intermittent collapse of a dam slope, seepage flow in a dam, and surface flow on a dam slope. The intermittent collapse model characterizes the progressive failure model. It considers a stabilization effect whereby collapse deposits support a steep slope. This effect decreases as the collapse deposits are transported downstream. Such a consideration allows the model to express intermittent, not continuous, occurrences of collapses. Field experiments on the progressive failure of a landslide dam were conducted to validate the proposed method. The progressive failure model successfully reproduced the experimental results of the collapse progression from the dam toe. Using the value predicted by the progressive failure model, the overtopping erosion model successfully reproduced the flood hydrograph after the reservoir water started to overflow.

Numerical simulation method for predicting a flood hydrograph due to progressive failure of a landslide dam