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Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic tool to estimate long-term tooth retention in periodontitis patients at the beginning of active periodontal therapy (APT). Material and methods Tooth-related factors (type, location, bone loss (BL), infrabony defects, furcation involvement (FI), abutment status), and patient-related factors (age, gender, smoking, diabetes, plaque control record) were investigated in patients who had completed APT 10 years before. Descriptive analysis was performed, and a generalized linear-mixed model-tree was used to identify predictors for the main outcome variable tooth loss. To evaluate goodness-of-fit, the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using cross-validation. A bootstrap approach was used to robustly identify risk factors while avoiding overfitting. Results Only a small percentage of teeth was lost during 10 years of supportive periodontal therapy (SPT; 0.15/year/patient). The risk factors abutment function, diabetes, and the risk indicator BL, FI, and age (≤ 61 vs. &gt; 61) were identified to predict tooth loss. The prediction model reached an AUC of 0.77. Conclusion This quantitative prognostic model supports data-driven decision-making while establishing a treatment plan in periodontitis patients. In light of this, the presented prognostic tool may be of supporting value. Clinical relevance In daily clinical practice, a quantitative prognostic tool may support dentists with data-based decision-making. However, it should be stressed that treatment planning is strongly associated with the patient’s wishes and adherence. The tool described here may support establishment of an individual treatment plan for periodontally compromised patients.

Development of a prognostic tool: based on risk factors for tooth loss after active periodontal therapy