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Humidity and temperature fluctuations atpressure levels between 166 and 290 hPa on the grid scale of general circulationmodels for a region covered by the routes of airliners, mainly over theAtlantic, have been determined by evaluation of the data obtained with almost2000 flights within the MOZAIC programme. It is found that the distributions ofthe fluctuations cannot be modelled by Gaussian distributions, because largefluctuations appear with a relatively high frequency. Lorentz distributions wereused for the analytical representation of the fluctuation distributions. Fromthese a joint probability distribution has been derived for simultaneoustemperature and humidity fluctuations. This function together with the criteriafor the formation and persistence of contrails are used to derive the maximumpossible fractional coverage of persistent contrails in a grid cell of a GCM.This can be employed in a statistical formulation of contrail appearance in aclimate model

annales geophysicae

Determination of humidity and temperature fluctuations based on MOZAIC data and parametrisation of persistent contrail coverage for general circulation models