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In anticipation of more severe summer droughts, forestry in temperate Europe is searching for drought-resistant ecotypes of native tree species that might maintain ecosystem services in the future. We investigated how spring precipitation and soil conditions interact with summer drought and affect the establishment of conifer seedlings from different climatic origin. Emergence, establishment and subsequent performance of seedlings originating from autochthonous, Central Alpine, continental Eastern European, and Mediterranean Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies populations were studied in the dry Alpine Rhine valley, Switzerland, at three sites with differing soil water holding capacities and in 3 years with contrasting weather conditions. In addition to this natural inter-annual variation, precipitation was manipulated within sites with throughfall reduction roofs. Seedling establishment and growth were principally affected by the spring weather in the year of emergence. In years with average to positive spring water balance, seedlings grown at the site with the highest water holding capacity had 2-5 times more aboveground biomass than seedlings grown at sites with less favourable soils. Effects of seed origin were marginal and only detectable at the drier sites: contrary to our expectations, seedlings from the Central Alpine Rhone valley, where the climatic spring water deficit is large, outperformed those from the Mediterranean. Consequently, plantation of non-native populations from dryer origin will mitigate the effects of increased summer drought at driest sites only, while the inter-annual variability of spring precipitation will continue to enable temperate conifers to regenerate on a wide range of forest soils independent of seed origin.

Spring water deficit and soil conditions matter more than seed origin and summer drought for the establishment of temperate conifers