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Climate change models predict that the range of the world's smallest tortoise, Homopus signatus signatus, will aridify and contract in the next decades. To evaluate the effects of annual variation in rainfall on the growth of H. s. signatus, we recorded annual growth rates of wild individuals from spring 2000 to spring 2004. Juveniles grew faster than did adults, and females grew faster than did males. Growth correlated strongly with the amount of rain that fell during the time just before and within the growth periods. Growth rates were lowest in 2002-2003, when almost no rain fell between September 2002 and August 2003. In this period, more than 54% of the tortoises had negative growth rates for their straight carapace length (SCL), shell height (SH), and shell volume (SV); maximum shrinking for SCL, SH, and SV was 4, 11, and 12%, respectively. The shell of H. s. signatus has some flexibility dorso-ventrally, so a reduction in internal matter due to starvation or dehydration may have caused SH to shrink. Because the length and width of the shell seem more rigid, reversible bone resorption may have contributed to shrinkage, particularly of the shell width and plastron length. Based on growth rates for all years, female H. s. signatus need 11-12 years to mature, approximately twice as long as would be expected allometrically for such a small species. However, if aridification lowers average growth rates to the level of 2002-2003, females would require 30 years to mature. Additionally, aridification would lower average and maximum female size, resulting in smaller eggs and hatchlings. These projected life history responses to aridification heighten the threat posed by the predicted range contraction of this red-listed species.

Growing and shrinking in the smallest tortoise, Homopus signatus signatus: the importance of rain