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In year 2006, Räisänen and Ruokolainen proposed a resampling ensemble technique for probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change. Here, the resulting forecasts of temperature and precipitation change from years 1971–2000 to 2011–2020 are verified. The forecasts of temperature change are found to be encouraginly reliable, with just 9% and 10% of the local annual and monthly mean changes falling outside the 5–95% forecast range. The verification statistics for temperature change represent a large improvement over the statistics for a surrogate no-forced-change forecast, and they are largely insensitive to the observational data used. The improvement for precipitation changes is much smaller, to a large extent due to the much lower signal-to-noise ratio of precipitation than temperature changes. In addition, uncertainty in observations is a major complication in verification of precipitation changes. For the main source of precipitation data chosen in the study, 20% and 15% of the local annual and monthly mean precipitation changes fall outside the 5–95% forecast range.

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: verification for temperature and precipitation changes from years 1971–2000 to 2011–2020