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European heat waves result from large-scale stationary waves and have major impacts on the economy and mortality. However, the dynamical processes leading to and maintaining heat waves are still not well understood. Here we use a nonlinear stationary wave model (NSWM) to examine the role played by anomalous stationary waves and how they are forced during heat waves. For our study, we use the Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-55) data for the period 1958 through 2017. We show that the NSWM can successfully reproduce the main features of the observed anomalous stationary waves in the upper troposphere. Our results indicate that the dynamics of heat waves are nonlinear, and transient momentum fluxes are the primary drivers of the observed anomalous stationary waves. The contribution from orographic forcing is moderate and mainly through nonlinear interactions with diabatic heating. Further decomposition of the transients indicates that the high-frequency transient vorticity fluxes make dominant contributions. Furthermore, our results reveal that the response to heating located in the tropical Indian Ocean and the west Pacific region is primarily responsible for maintaining the observed anomalous stationary waves linked to European heat waves. This is confirmed by exploring the relationship between heat waves and the Indian Ocean Dipole strength. The heating in the mid-latitude and tropical Atlantic region plays a secondary role. Our results suggest that European heat waves are potentially predictable by considering the nonlinear effects involved in anomalous stationary waves and the heating sources in the nearby and remote tropical region.

The role of transient eddies and diabatic heating in the maintenance of European heat waves: a nonlinear quasi-stationary wave perspective