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Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of majorimportance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annuallayered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin(26 deg S, 66 deg W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive ofprecipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data withpresent-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfallvariability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause ofsuch variability is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal linkbetween ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method ofnonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots(CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two differentprocesses, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Ouranalysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern andpalaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that anENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C yearsago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in aprevious study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain theclustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods