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Cyclones with strong winds can make the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic a dangerous environment. Accurate weather forecasts are essential for safe shipping in the Southern Ocean and observational and logistical operations at Antarctic research stations. This study investigated the impact of additional radiosonde observations from Research Vessel “Shirase” over the Southern Ocean and Dome Fuji Station in Antarctica on reanalysis data and forecast experiments using an ensemble data assimilation system comprising the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis, version 2. A 63-member ensemble forecast experiment was conducted focusing on an unusually strong Antarctic cyclonic event. Reanalysis data with (observing system experiment) and without (control) additional radiosonde data were used as initial values. The observing system experiment correctly captured the central pressure of the cyclone, which led to the reliable prediction of the strong winds and moisture transport near the coast. Conversely, the control experiment predicted lower wind speeds because it failed to forecast the central pressure of the cyclone adequately. Differences were found in cyclone predictions of operational forecast systems with and without assimilation of radiosonde observations from Dome Fuji Station. 强风气旋可以使南大洋和南极成为危险的环境。准确的天气预报对南大洋的安全运输以及南极研究站的观测和后勤作业至关重要。本文研究了从南大洋Shirase研究船和南极圆顶富士站获取的补充无线电探空仪观测数据,对再分析数据及预报试验的影响,预报试验使用集合数据同化系统,该系统包括地球模拟器的大气环流模式以及基于局部集合变换卡尔曼滤波方法的试验集合再分析。针对一个异常强的南极气旋事件进行了63组集合预报试验,使用(观测系统试验)和不使用(控制试验)补充无线电探空仪数据的再分析数据作为初始值。观测系统试验正确获取了气旋的中心气压,因此准确预测了南极沿岸的强风和水汽输送。相反,控制试验预测的风速较低,因其未能充分预测出气旋中心气压。在业务预报系统中同化圆顶富士站的无线电探空仪观测数据与否,对气旋的预测存在差异。

Antarctic Radiosonde Observations Reduce Uncertainties and Errors in Reanalyses and Forecasts over the Southern Ocean: An Extreme Cyclone Case