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Objectives  To develop radiomics-based nomograms for preoperative microvascular invasion (MVI) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction in patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤ 5 cm.    Methods  Between March 2012 and September 2019, 356 patients with pathologically confirmed solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm who underwent preoperative gadoxetate disodium–enhanced MRI were retrospectively enrolled. MVI was graded as M0, M1, or M2 according to the number and distribution of invaded vessels. Radiomics features were extracted from DWI, arterial, portal venous, and hepatobiliary phase images in regions of the entire tumor, peritumoral area ≤ 10 mm, and randomly selected liver tissue. Multivariate analysis identified the independent predictors for MVI and RFS, with nomogram visualized the ultimately predictive models.    Results  Elevated alpha-fetoprotein, total bilirubin and radiomics values, peritumoral enhancement, and incomplete or absent capsule enhancement were independent risk factors for MVI. The AUCs of MVI nomogram reached 0.920 (95% CI: 0.861–0.979) using random forest and 0.879 (95% CI: 0.820–0.938) using logistic regression analysis in validation cohort ( n  = 106). With the 5-year RFS rate of 68.4%, the median RFS of MVI-positive (M2 and M1) and MVI-negative (M0) patients were 30.5 (11.9 and 40.9) and > 96.9 months ( p  < 0.001), respectively. Age, histologic MVI, alkaline phosphatase, and alanine aminotransferase independently predicted recurrence, yielding AUC of 0.654 (95% CI: 0.538–0.769,  n  = 99) in RFS validation cohort. Instead of histologic MVI, the preoperatively predicted MVI by MVI nomogram using random forest achieved comparable accuracy in MVI stratification and RFS prediction.    Conclusions  Preoperative radiomics-based nomogram using random forest is a potential biomarker of MVI and RFS prediction for solitary HCC ≤ 5 cm.    Key Points  •  The radiomics score was the predominant independent predictor of MVI which was the primary independent risk factor for postoperative recurrence.   •  The radiomics-based nomogram using either random forest or logistic regression analysis has obtained the best preoperative prediction of MVI in HCC patients so far.   •  As an excellent substitute for the invasive histologic MVI, the preoperatively predicted MVI by MVI nomogram using random forest (MVI-RF) achieved comparable accuracy in MVI stratification and outcome, reinforcing the radiologic understanding of HCC angioinvasion and progression.Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-020-07601-2.

european radiology

Multi-scale and multi-parametric radiomics of gadoxetate disodium–enhanced MRI predicts microvascular invasion and outcome in patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma ≤ 5 cm