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Two competing proposals about the degree to which selection affects codon usage of angiosperm chloroplast genes are examined. The first, based on observations that codon usage does not match expectations under the naïve assumption that base composition will be identical at all neutral sites, is that selection plays a significant role. The second is that codon usage is determined almost solely by mutation bias and drift, with selection influencing only one or two highly expressed genes, in particular  psbA . First it is shown that, as a result of an influence of neighboring base composition on mutation dynamics, compositional biases are expected to be widely divergent at different sites in the absence of selection. The observed mutation properties are then used to predict expected neutral codon usage biases and to show that observed deviations from the naïve expectations are in fact expected given the context-dependent mutational dynamics. It is also shown that there is a match between the observed and expected codon usage when context effects are taken into consideration, with  psbA  being a notable exception. Overall, the data support the model that selection is not a widespread factor affecting the codon usage of angiosperm chloroplast genes and highlight the need to have an accurate model of mutational dynamics.

Context-Dependent Mutation Dynamics, Not Selection, Explains the Codon Usage Bias of Most Angiosperm Chloroplast Genes