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Satellite-based communications, navigation systems and many scientificinstruments rely on observations of trans-ionospheric signals. The quality ofthese signals can be deteriorated by ionospheric scintillation which can havedetrimental effects on the mentioned applications. Therefore, monitoring ofionospheric scintillation and quantifying its effect on the ground are ofsignificant interest. In this work, we develop a methodology which estimatesthe scintillation induced ionospheric uncertainties in the sky and translatestheir impact to the end-users on the ground. First, by using the risk conceptfrom decision theory and by exploiting the intensity and duration ofscintillation events (as measured by the S4 index), we estimate ionosphericrisk maps that could readily give an initial impression on the effects ofscintillation on the satellite-receiver communication. However, to betterunderstand the influence of scintillation on the positioning accuracy on theground, we formulate a new weighted dilution of precision (WPDOP) measure thatincorporates the ionospheric scintillation risks as weighting factors for thegiven satellite-receiver constellations. These weights depend implicitly onscintillation intensity and duration thresholds which can be specified by theend-user based on the sensitivity of the application, for example. Wedemonstrate our methodology by using scintillation data from South America, andproduce ionospheric risk maps which illustrate broad scintillation activity,especially at the equatorial anomaly. Moreover, we construct ground maps ofWPDOP over a grid of hypothetical receivers which reveal that ionosphericscintillation can also affect such regions of the continent that are notexactly under the observed ionospheric scintillation structures. Particularly,this is evident in cases when only the Global Positioning System (GPS) isavailable.

Methodology to estimate ionospheric scintillation risk maps and their contribution to position dilution of precision on the ground