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We consider a modified version of the de Finetti model in insurance risk theory in which, when surpluses become negative the company has the possibility of borrowing, and thus continue its operation. For this model we examine the problem of estimating the “time-in-the red” over a finite horizon via simulation. We propose a smoothed estimator based on a conditioning argument which is very simple to implement as well as particularly efficient, especially when the claim distribution is heavy tailed. We establish unbiasedness for this estimator and show that its variance is lower than the naïve estimator based on counts. Finally we present a number of simulation results showing that the smoothed estimator has variance which is often significantly lower than that of the naïve Monte-Carlo estimator.

Smoothed Monte Carlo estimators for the time-in-the-red in risk processes