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An earthquake catalog created by the International Seismological Center (ISC) was analyzed, including 3898 earthquakes located in and around Japan between January 1964 and June 2012 shallower than 60 km with the body wave magnitude of 5.0 or larger. Clustered events such as earthquake swarms and aftershocks were removed from the ISC catalog by using a stochastic declustering method based on Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. A detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog using a simple scanning technique (ZMAP) shows that the long-term seismic quiescences lasting more than 9 years were recognized ten times along the subduction zone in and around Japan. The three seismic quiescences among them were followed by three great earthquakes: the 1994 Hokkaido-toho-oki earthquake (Mw 8.3), the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.3), and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0). The remaining seven seismic quiescences were followed by no earthquake with the seismic moment M0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm (Mw 8.25), which are candidates of the false alarm. The 2006 Kurile Islands earthquake (Mw 8.3) was not preceded by the significant seismic quiescence, which is a case of the surprise occurrence. As a result, when limited to earthquakes with the seismic moment of M0 ≥ 3.0 × 1021 Nm, four earthquakes occurred between 1976 and 2012 in and around Japan, and three of them were preceded by the long-term seismic quiescence lasting more than 9 years.

Long-Term Seismic Quiescences and Great Earthquakes in and Around the Japan Subduction Zone Between 1975 and 2012