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The estimation of risk for incidence of hypertension was carried out by follow-up study in a small village in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan (N=750, 48.2±15.2months). The most significant risk in both sexes was blood pressure at entry. As for other risks, age, total cholesterol, and BMI in females were significant risks for systolic and diastolic blood pressure changes to greater than the borderline level. These factors in males were not significant. From the results of analysis using Cox's proportional hazards model, drinking in males was shown to be a significant risk for diastolic change, and in females for systolic change. It was concluded that excessive drinking in both sexes and obesity in females led to important health problems associated with hypertension among the subjects of the study.

Risk estimation for hypertension based on follow-up health examination data in a small village in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan