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The paper provides estimates of the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks, in the form of the deterioration of the terms of trade and the slowdown in world export demand, for twelve newly-industrializing countries. It further analyzes policy responses to external shock in these countries and estimates the balance-of-payments effects of policy responses in the form of additional external borrowing, export promotion, import substitution, and reducing the rate of economic growth. Finally, the policies followed by the individual countries are evaluated in a comparative framework. There is a high correlation between reliance on export promotion in response to external shocks and the rate of economic growth. This result reflects the success of countries that continued to follow outward-oriented policies (Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) and those that newly adopted such policies (Chile and Uruguay) during te period under consideration. These countries had relatively low incremental capital-output ratios as they achieved more efficient resource allocation and more rapid technological change than their inward-looking counterparts, such as India.

The newly-industrializing developing countries after the oil crisis: Reply