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Following the 19th century recognition and definition of basic ecological entities, functional analysis has been the highlight of this century. The synthesis of these findings enables ecological prognosis. The population as the basic functional unit has been repeatedly treated; in the marine field, fisheries management approaches developed into multi-species population analysis. As in planktology, theoretical ecology, and classic biocoenotic research, the population interactions are of increasing scientific interest. A mathematical model is suggested that combines these extrinsic and intrinsic functional relationships in order to define the fit of the ecological niche to the environment, the decisive measure of the expected population success, and thus of the probable population development needed for prognostic purposes. It is discussed in how far the orientation towards the predictive power or — with respect to the “skill” of meteorological prognoses — the “ecological prognostic skill” improvement may serve as a means to choose the best investigative strategy.

The potential of and limitations to marine population prognosis