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Globally operating suppliers face the rising challenge of wholesale pricingunder scarce data about retail demand, in contrast to better informed, locallyoperating retailers. At the same time, as local businesses proliferate, marketscongest and retail competition increases. To capture these strategicconsiderations, we employ the classic Cournot model and extend it to atwo-stage supply chain with an upstream supplier who operates under demanduncertainty and multiple downstream retailers who compete over quantity. Thesupplier's belief about retail demand is modeled via a continuous probabilitydistribution function F. If F has the decreasing generalized mean residual lifeproperty, then the supplier's optimal pricing policy exists and is the uniquefixed point of the mean residual life function. We evaluate the realized Priceof Uncertainty and show that there exist demand levels for which marketperforms better when the supplier prices under demand uncertainty. In general,performance worsens for lower values of realized demand. We examine the effectsof increasing competition on supply chain efficiency via the realized Price ofAnarchy and complement our findings with numerical results.

Measuring Market Performance with Stochastic Demand: Price of Anarchy and Price of Uncertainty