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When observing data x1, . . . , x t modelled by a probabilistic distribution pθ(x), the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator θML = arg max θ Σti=1 ln pθ(x i ) cannot, in general, safely be used to predict xt + 1. For instance, for a Bernoulli process, if only “tails” have been observed so far, the probability of “heads” is estimated to 0. (Thus for the standard log-loss scoring rule, this results in infinite loss the first time “heads” appears.)

Laplace’s Rule of Succession in Information Geometry