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Third political parties are influential in shaping American politics. In thiswork we study the spread of a third party ideology in a voting population wherewe assume that party members/activists are more influential in recruiting newthird party voters than non-member third party voters. The study uses anepidemiological metaphor to develop a theoretical model with nonlinear ordinarydifferential equations as applied to a case study, the Green Party. Consideringlong-term behavior, we identify three threshold parameters in our model thatdescribe the different possible scenarios for the political party and itsspread. We also apply the model to the study of the Green Party's growth usingvoting and registration data in six states and the District of Columbia toidentify and explain trends over the past decade. Our system produces abackward bifurcation that helps identify conditions under which a sufficientlydedicated activist core can enable a third party to thrive, under conditionswhich would not normally allow it to arise. Our results explain the criticalrole activists play in sustaining grassroots movements under adverseconditions.

An Epidemiological Approach to the Spread of Political Third Parties