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Since the prediction of climate is mainly considered as a prediction ofsecond kind, it is indispensable to assess the accuracy with which theseboundary conditions can be determined so that we can find a reasonable answer,whether climate is predictable with a sufficient degree of accuracy or not.Therefore, our contribution is mainly focused on the accuracy with which thefluxes of sensible heat and water vapor, required for predicting the lowerboundary conditions in numerical models of the atmosphere using the coupled setof energy and water flux balance equations for the Earth's surface, can bedetermined. The parameterization schemes for the interfacial sublayer in theimmediate vicinity of the Earth's surface and for the fully turbulent layerabove presented and discussed here document that an appreciable degree ofuncertainty exists. It is shown that the great uncertainty inherent in theuniversal functions of the Monin-Obukhov similarity laws on which theparameterization schemes for the fully turbulent atmospheric surface layer arebased is reflected by the considerable scatter in the results of sophisticatedfield campaigns. This uncertainty affects also the results for thegradient-Richardson number, the turbulent Prandtl number, Pr_t, and theturbulent Schmidt number, Sc_{t,q}, (and the turbulent Lewis-Semenov number,LS_{t,q}) for water vapor used in such parameterization schemes. It is arguedthat the inherent uncertainty prevents that climate is predictable with asufficient degree of accuracy.

On the accuracy with which the lower boundary conditions can be determined in numerical models of the atmosphere