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The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the realmodel uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, andshared defects, of the models in the ensemble. To generate an appropriate levelof uncertainty, the spread needs inflating. We derive the mathematicalconnection between an assumed level of correlation between the model output andthe necessary inflation of the spread, and illustrate the connection by makingtemperature predictions for the UK for the 21st century using four differentcorrelation scenarios.

CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty