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For more than 40 years, the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD countries andthe International Atomic Energy Administration of the United Nations havepublished a biannual document with the title "Uranium Resources, Production andDemand". This book, known as the "Red Book", summarizes data about the actualand near future nuclear energy situation and presents the accumulated worldwideknowledge about the existing and expected uranium resources. These data arewidely believed to provide an accurate and solid basis for future decisionsabout nuclear energy. Unfortunately, as it is demonstrated in this paper, theydo not.  The conventional worldwide uranium resources are estimated by the authors ofthe Red Book as 5.5 million tons. Out of these, 3.3 million tons are assignedto the reasonable assured category and 2.2 million tons are associated with thenot yet discovered but assumed to exist inferred resources. Our analysis showsthat neither the 3.3 million tons of "assured" resources nor the 2.2 milliontons of inferred resources are justified by the Red Book data and that theactual known exploitable resources are probably much smaller.  Despite many shortcomings of the uranium resource data, some interesting andvaluable information can be extracted from the Red Book. Perhaps mostimportantly, the Red Book resource data can be used to test the"economic-geological hypothesis", which claims for example that a doubling ofuranium price will increase the amount exploitable uranium resources by an evenlarger factor. The relations between the uranium resources claimed for thedifferent resource categories and their associated cost estimates are found tobe in clear contradiction with this hypothesis.

The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter III: How (un)reliable are the Red Book Uranium Resource Data?