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We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in theconstruction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in orderthat those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has beenconsidered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that webelieve makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for varioussimple cases.

A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior