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Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate,from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves anddroughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predictsa delay in the seasonal cycle of global rainfall and ocean temperature inresponse to increasing greenhouse gases, with important implications for theregional monsoons. In particular, the rainy season of the semi-arid AfricanSahel is projected to start later and become shorter: an undesirable change forlocal rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Previous work has highlighted theuncertainty in this region's response to anthropogenic global warming: summerrainfall is predicted either to decrease or increase by up to 30% dependingwhich model is used. The robust agreement across models on the seasonaldistribution of rainfall changes signifies that the onset date and length ofthe rainy season should be more predictable than annual mean anomalies.

Delayed Seasonal Cycle and African Monsoon in a Warmer Climate