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As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range tofollow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often riskingextinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries todispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not onlythe position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. Weuse a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistenceof simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When thegrowth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence areprincipally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climatechange, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growthterm taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to thevariations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the specieswhich have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow themigration of the climate envelope, would be at risk of extinction whenencountering a local narrowing of the boundary geometry. This effect can beattenuated by a progressive opening of the available space at the exit of thenarrowing, even though it transiently leads to a diminished area of the climateenvelope.

A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry