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Homicide investigations often depend on the determination of a minimumpost-mortem interval (PMI$_{min}$) by forensic entomologists. The age of themost developed insect larvae (mostly blow fly larvae) gives reasonably reliableinformation about the minimum time a person has been dead. Methods such asisomegalen diagrams or ADH calculations can have problems in their reliability,so we established in this study a new growth model to calculate the larval ageof \textit{Lucilia sericata} (Meigen 1826). This is based on the actualnon-linear development of the blow fly and is designed to includeuncertainties, e.g. for temperature values from the crime scene. We usedpublished data for the development of \textit{L. sericata} to estimatenon-linear functions describing the temperature dependent behavior of eachdevelopmental state. For the new model it is most important to determine theprogress within one developmental state as correctly as possible since thisaffects the accuracy of the PMI estimation by up to 75%. We found that PMIcalculations based on one mean temperature value differ by up to 65% from PMIsbased on an 12-hourly time temperature profile. Differences of 2\degree C inthe estimation of the crime scene temperature result in a deviation in PMIcalculation of 15 - 30%.

A new simulation-based model for calculating post-mortem intervals using developmental data for Lucilia sericata (Dipt.: Calliphoridae)