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The outbreaks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in2003 resulted in unprecedented impacts on people's daily life. One of the mostsignificant impacts to people is the risk of contacting SARS while engagingdaily routine activity. In this work we use data from daily undergroundridership in Taipei and daily reported SARS cases in Taiwan to model thedynamics of the public underground usage during the wax and wane of the SARSperiod. We found that for each reported SARS case there is an immediate loss ofabout 1200 underground ridership. These loss rates propagate to the followingdays with an e-folding decay time of about 28 days, reflecting the publicperception on the risk of contacting SARS disease when travelling with theunderground system. About 50% of daily ridership was lost during the peak ofthe 2003 SARS period, compared with the loss of 80% daily ridership during theclosure of the underground system after Typhoon Nari, the loss of 50-70%ridership due to the closure of the governmental offices and schools duringtyphoon periods, and the loss of 60% daily ridership during Chinese New Yearholidays.

A model of underground ridership during the severe outbreaks of the SARS epidemic in a modern city