English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complexspatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensionalcellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels,is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vectortransmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables.The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult and immature vectorpopulations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing (rainfallintensity data), human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. Themodel parameters, even if bounded to well defined intervals obtained fromreported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In thecurrent study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual dataretrieved from the time-series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. Theresults show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It alsoreveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of theepidemics. In the extreme situation of absence of external periodic drive, themodel predicts completely distinct long time evolution. The model is robust inthe sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics ofdifferent cities, provided the forcing term takes into account the localrainfall modulation. Finally, the dependence between epidemics threshold andvector control undergoes a transition from power law to stretched exponentialbehavior due to human mobility effect.

Periodic forcing in a three level cellular automata model for a vector transmitted disease