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Background: Many authors have described MELD as a predictor of short-termmortality in the liver transplantation waiting list. However MELD scoreaccuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated.Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the MELD score as well as othervariables as a predictor of long-term mortality using a new model: the SurvivalTree analysis. Study Design and Setting: The variables obtained at the time ofliver transplantation list enrollment and considered in this study are: sex,age, blood type, body mass index, etiology of liver disease, hepatocellularcarcinoma, waiting time for transplant and MELD. Mortality on the waiting listis the outcome. Exclusion, transplantation or still in the transplantation listat the end of the study are censored data. Results: The graphicalrepresentation of the survival trees showed that the most statisticallysignificant cut off is related to MELD score at point 16. Conclusion: Theresults are compatible with the cut off point of MELD indicated in the clinicalliterature.

Survival tree and meld to predict long term survival in liver transplantation waiting list