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We propose a comprehensive bibliometric study of the profile of Nobelprizewinners in chemistry and physics from 1901 to 2007, based on citation dataavailable over the same period. The data allows us to observe the evolution ofthe profiles of winners in the years leading up to (and following) nominationsand awarding of the Nobel Prize. The degree centrality and citation rankings inthese fields confirm that the Prize is awarded at the peak of the winners'careers, despite brief a Halo Effect observable in the years following theattribution of the Prize. Changes in the size and organization of the twofields result in a rapid decline of predictive power of bibliometric data overthe century. This can be explained not only by the growing size andfragmentation of the two disciplines, but also, at least in the case ofphysics, by an implicit hierarchy in the most legitimate topics within thediscipline, as well as among the scientists selected for the Prize.Furthermore, the lack of readily-identifiable dominant contemporary physicistssuggests that there are few new paradigm shifts within the field, as perceivedby the scientific community as a whole.

Why it has become more difficult to predict Nobel Prize winners: a  bibliometric analysis of Nominees and Winners of the Chemistry and Physics  Prizes (1901-2007)