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One of the most interesting unsolved questions in science today is thequestion of life on other planets. At the present time it is safe to say thatwe do not have much of an idea as to whether life is common or exceedingly rarein the universe, and this will probably not be solved for certain unlessdefinitive evidence of extraterrestrial life is found in the future. Ourpresence on Earth is just as consistent with the hypothesis that life isextremely rare as it is with the hypothesis that it is common, since if therewas only one planet with intelligent life, we would find ourselves on it.However, we have more information than this, such as the the surprisingly shortlength of time it took for life to arise on Earth. Previous authors haveanalysed this information, concluding that it is evidence that the probabilityof abiogenesis is moderate ($>$ 13% with 95% probability) and cannot beextremely small. In this paper I use simple probabilistic model to show thatthis conclusion was based more on an unintentional assumption than on the data.While the early formation of life on Earth provides some evidence in thedirection of life being common, it is far from conclusive, and in particulardoes not rule out the possibility that abiogenesis has only occurred once inthe history of the universe.

The Implications of the Early Formation of Life on Earth