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Gott has promulgated a rule for making probabilistic predictions of thefuture duration of a phenomenon based on the phenomenon's present age [Nature,Vol. 363, 315 (1993)]. I show that the two usual methods for deriving Gott'srule are flawed. Nothing licenses indiscriminate use of Gott's rule as apredictor of future duration. It should only be used when the phenomenon inquestion has no identifiable time scales.

Predicting future duration from present age: Revisiting a critical assessment of Gott's rule