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A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthlyfluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The modelrelies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with theatmosphere. When temperature changes, the system attempts to restore theequilibrium, with a time constant constrained by the dynamic fluxes between thetwo. The model is used to reconstruct both the historic evolution of CO2concentrations since 1885, as well as the monthly fluctuations since 1959. Thebest fit is obtained with the southern hemisphere sea surface temperature data.In this new picture, human emissions play no role in the build-up ofatmospheric CO2, but do contribute to the fluxes that restore the equilibrium.

Reaching for equilibrium : an alternative view of the unbalanced carbon cycle