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This paper intends to explain Venezuela's country spread behavior through theNeural Networks analysis of a monthly economic activity general index ofeconomic indicators constructed by the Central Bank of Venezuela, a measure ofthe shocks affecting country risk of emerging markets and the U.S. short terminterest rate. The use of non parametric methods allowed the finding of nonlinear relationship between these inputs and the country risk. The networksperformance was evaluated using the method of excess predictability.

A Non Parametric Study of the Volatility of the Economy as a Country Risk Predictor