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A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate theconditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spreadthrough heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expectednumber of new infections generated by one infected individual; the diseasespreads if the BRN is larger than 1). A simple analytical expression for theBRN is derived on the basis of recent data on survival rates, transmissionprobabilities, and levels of sexual activity. Baseline results show that in thepopulation at large (characterized by equal numbers of men and women) the BRNis larger than 1 if every year each person has 82 sexual contacts withdifferent partners. the BRN is also larger than 1 for commercial sex workers(CSWs) and their clients (two populations of different sizes) if each CSW hasabout 256 clients per year and each client visits one CSW every two weeks. Asensitivity analysis explores the effect on the BRN of a doubling (or ahalving) of the transmission probabilities. Implications and extensions arediscussed.

Does heterosexual transmission drive the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa (or elsewhere)?