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In this paper, we model a nonlinear dynamics of infectious diseases transfer.Particularly, we study possible applications to tubercular infection in modelswith different profiles (peak values) of the population density dependence onspatial coordinates. Our approach is based on the well known method ofinstantons which has been used by the authors to describe kinetics of adiabaticchemical reactions as a function of the heat-bath temperature and other systemparameters. In our approach, we use "social temperature" T as one of thecontrolling parameters. Increase of T leads to acceleration of the infectiousdiseases transfer. The "blockage" effect for the infectious diseases transferhas been demonstrated in the case when peak values (in the population density)are equal to one and under condition that the "social temperature" is low.Existence of such effect essentially depends from environment "activity"(social and prophylactic). Results of our modeling qualitatively meet thetuberculosis dynamic spread data in Penza region of Russia.

Nonlinear Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Transfer with Possible Applications for Tubercular Infection