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If predictions for species extinctions hold, then the `tree of life' todaymay be quite different to that in (say) 100 years. We describe a technique toquantify how much each species is likely to contribute to future biodiversity,as measured by its expected contribution to phylogenetic diversity. Ourapproach considers all possible scenarios for the set of species that will beextant at some future time, and weights them according to their likelihoodunder an independent (but not identical) distribution on species extinctions.Although the number of extinction scenarios can typically be very large, weshow that there is a simple algorithm that will quickly compute this index. Themethod is implemented and applied to the prosimian primates as a test case, andthe associated species ranking is compared to a related measure (the `Shapleyindex'). We describe indices for rooted and unrooted trees, and a modificationthat also includes the focal taxon's probability of extinction, making itdirectly comparable to some new conservation metrics.

Hedging our bets: the expected contribution of species to future phylogenetic diversity