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Correlations between planetary and stellar properties, particularly age, canprovide insight on planetary formation and evolution processes. However, theunderlying source of such trends can be unclear, and measurement uncertaintiesand small sample sizes can leave doubt as to whether an observed trend trulyexists. We use a Bayesian framework to examine how uncertainties in measuredparameters influence the odds ratios of competing hypotheses for the source ofan observed trend. We analyze three reported trends from the literature. Ineach application, while uncertainties do affect the numerical value of the oddsratios, our conclusions remain the same whether or not uncertainties are takeninto account: hot Jupiter eccentricities are circularized over time,obliquities of hot Jupiter hosts are driven by stellar temperature, and thereis not enough evidence to favor a trend of 2:1 orbital resonances with age overa chance relation. Updated samples for the 2:1 resonances and obliquities casesdo not change the original conclusions. Simulated 2:1 resonance data show thatsample size may be more important than measurement precision for drawing a firmconclusion. However, if 2:1 resonances get disrupted on a wide range oftimescales, an age trend will be inherently difficult to confirm over a chancerelation, even with a large sample. For some applications, full incorporationof measurement uncertainties may be too computationally expensive, making itpreferable to use the framework without uncertainties and perform additionaltests to examine the effects of highly uncertain measurements.

the astronomical journal

Nature vs. Nurture: Investigating the Effects of Measurement  Uncertainties in the Assessment of Potential Trends Between Planetary and  Stellar Properties