Open AccessMultifactor Forecasting of Socioeconomic Development of Regions
Author(s) -
Galina Yurievna Gagarina,
Gleb Ryzhakov,
Natalia Sorokina,
Liliya Nikolaevna Chaynikova,
Darina Alexandrovna Sizova
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
international journal of engineering and advanced technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2249-8958
DOI - 10.35940/ijeat.a2130.109119
Subject(s) - socioeconomic status , socioeconomic development , gross regional product , econometrics , gross domestic product , sustainability , product (mathematics) , economic indicator , regional science , geography , computer science , economic growth , economics , mathematics , macroeconomics , demography , economy , sociology , ecology , population , geometry , biology
The goal of the article is to develop an economic and mathematical model allowing to predict the nature of the socioeconomic development of the Russian regions, with due consideration for the most significant factors that determine its dynamics. An algorithm has been proposed for predicting the growth rate of the gross regional product, including justification of the factors that have both positive and negative impacts on this indicator, as well as the procedure for generating forecast estimates using the Wolfram Mathematica 11 kit. A forecast model of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region, one of the backbone regions in Russia, has been formed. The statistical indicators of the region under study for 2004 – 2017 have been analyzed. The forecast data have been interpreted. The negative factors hindering the further development of the Lipetsk region have been highlighted. The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy, as well as state and regional programs aimed at ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region.