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Trend, Weather Variables, and the Distribution of U.S. Corn Yields
Author(s) -
Kaylen Michael S.,
Koroma Suffyanu S.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.2307/1349641
Subject(s) - distribution (mathematics) , agricultural economics , environmental science , economics , econometrics , mathematics , statistics , mathematical analysis
A Kalman filter algorithm and 1895–1988 data were used to estimate a U.S. corn yield model which incorporates a stochastic trend term and monthly weather indices. Yield growth peaked in 1964, with the annual increase now only 1.3 bushels per year. The empirical distribution of 1989 corn yield is derived and found to be skewed. The mean yield for 1989 was close to final USDA estimates.
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