Open AccessEVALUATION PROBABILITY OF INGOING FACTOR IN THE EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF AIRCRAFT
Author(s) -
Олександр Курдеча
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
mehanika giroskopičeskih sistem/mehanìka gìroskopìčnih sistem
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2519-2272
pISSN - 0203-3771
DOI - 10.20535/0203-377127201437936
Subject(s) - aviation , aviation accident , causation , factor (programming language) , point (geometry) , action (physics) , accident (philosophy) , risk analysis (engineering) , estimation , value (mathematics) , computer science , engineering , operations research , mathematics , statistics , business , systems engineering , aerospace engineering , philosophy , physics , geometry , epistemology , quantum mechanics , political science , law , programming language
This paper describes the evaluation probability of ingoing factor (factor which leads to emergency situations)in the specific situations (abnormal situations and contingencies which evolution dependence from human action in it)as the system of contacts between failures of aircraft and aviation personnel erroneous actions.In this paper investigation is concerned with types of factors to analyse the causation of accidents from a probability factors' point of view.The paper makes it possible to assess the impact of factors on the possibility of an accident. This is achieved by taking into account the structural relationships between risk factors.As a result, we have suggested the mathematical model of estimation risk factors with using information of aviation events in the world statistics provided in the ADREP and formulates the concept of danger, numerical value of which is determined by the probability of occurrence of a factor in the disastrous situation.