Open AccessAbout assessment of the methodology of the epidemiological situation
Author(s) -
С. Л. Колпаков,
A. V. Yakovlev
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
èpidemiologiâ i infekcionnye bolezni
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2411-3026
pISSN - 1560-9529
DOI - 10.17816/eid40877
Subject(s) - epidemiology , grading (engineering) , russian federation , confidence interval , epidemiological method , medicine , statistics , estimation , environmental health , demography , actuarial science , geography , mathematics , business , regional science , pathology , engineering , sociology , civil engineering , systems engineering
Objective: the study of methods for the assessment of the prevalence and development of methodology for evaluation of the epidemiological situation in the RF subjects during the calendar year. The condition of an objective evaluation is the use of external criteria. Therefore, the assessment of one or another administrative territory is performing accordingly to the distribution of morbidity rate in separate subjects of the Russian Federation. As a criterion there is proposed to use the average prevalence of the subject of the Russian Federation - the median and its confidence limits with 95% significance. As a tool for grading of the scale there are considered as the total confidence interval, as possibilities of transition to centile method. There were elaborated methodical principles of the evaluation of the epidemiological situation. The base is the position that the objective, in territorial aspect may be the estimation only of the role of the stable factors. At the first stage the epidemiological situation should be to assessed on the theoretical prevalence of the year under consideration or on the forecast. Later, after the performing of the retrospective epidemiological analysis of morbidity in the subject and establishing the role of the determinants of the epidemic process in the index of considered year (internal control) it is possible to make adjustment and newly re-assess the epidemiological situation.