Modelo de identificação do impacto futuro de chuvas extremas nos atrasos/cancelamentos de voos

Problems associated with flight delays and cancellations significantly affect the development of the aviation industry. Unfavourable weather conditions are among some of the main reasons for these problems, and the mapping and climate predictions are essential for making decisions regarding climate interference in air operations. In this sense, the present study takes as reference the case of Sao Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and correlates events of flight delays and cancellations to accumulated rainfall indexes. The pluviometric data for the meteorological station of GRU considered refer to the years 2011 to 2015, while the forecasts are made for the period between 2016 and 2020 in order to test the proposed model. Spearman correlation is used to analyse the relationship between rainfall index and flight delays/cancellations to create a range of accumulated daily rainfall values that generate these delays/cancellations. The Bias correction, by the power transformation method, was also adopted for future corrected data. The results show that, according to the data used, there will be an increase of approximately 15% in the amount of flight delays/cancellations over the five years considered in the study. In addition, it is considered that there will be an increase in the number of days of occurrence of these events.