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Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru
Author(s) -
Moisés Arce,
Sofía Vera
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
revista latinoamericana de opinión pública
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2660-700X
pISSN - 1852-9003
DOI - 10.14201/rlop.25805
Subject(s) - presidential system , volatility (finance) , politics , certainty , personality psychology , competition (biology) , economics , political science , political economy , econometrics , social psychology , psychology , law , ecology , philosophy , epistemology , personality , biology
The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.

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