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Background Soil erosion is one of the major threats in the Ethiopian highlands. In this study, soil erosion in the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay) under historical and future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change was assessed. Future LULC was predicted based on LULC map of 1985, 2002, and 2017. LULC maps of the historical periods were delineated from Landsat images, and future LULC was predicted using the CA–Markov chain model. Precipitation for the future period was projected from six regional circulation models. The RUSLE model was used to estimate the current and future soil erosion rate in Muga watershed. Results The average annual rate of soil erosion in the study area was increased from about 15 t ha −1  year −1  in 1985 to 19 t ha −1  year −1  in 2002, and 19.7 t ha −1  year −1  in 2017. Expansion of crop cultivation and loss of vegetation caused an increase in soil erosion. Unless proper measure is taken against the LULC changes, the rate of soil loss is expected to increase and reach about 20.7 t ha −1  year −1  in 2033. In the 2050s, soil loss is projected to increase by 9.6% and 11.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the baseline period. Thus, the soil loss rate is expected to increase under both scenarios due to the higher erosive power of the future intense rainfall. When both LULC and climate changes act together, the mean annual soil loss rate shows a rise of 13.2% and 15.7% in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, which is due to synergistic effects. Conclusions The results of this study can be useful for formulating proper land use planning and investments to mitigate the adverse effect of LULC on soil loss. Furthermore, climate change will exacerbate the existing soil erosion problem and would need for vigorous proper conservation policies and investments to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on soil loss.

Impacts of land use/land cover and climate changes on soil erosion in Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin (Abay), Ethiopia