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Instrumental test to estimate a model of forecast yield: a non‐parametric application to the pollen index in South Italy
Author(s) -
ORLANDI F,
LANART D,
PIERONP L,
ROMANO B,
FORNACIARI M
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
annals of applied biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.677
H-Index - 80
eISSN - 1744-7348
pISSN - 0003-4746
DOI - 10.1111/j.1744-7348.2004.tb00362.x
Subject(s) - pollen , principal component analysis , biology , parametric statistics , statistics , index (typography) , parametric model , ecology , mathematics , computer science , world wide web
Summary A statistical test is described to verify the characteristics of the biological information contained in the dynamics of the flowering process. The test focuses on interactions between the pollen index and climatic variables to investigate if the biological indicator can synthesise the information of the pre‐flowering phases. The multiple‐regression model is built upon two pre‐flowering climate macro‐indicators extracted by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the optimised pollen index is obtained by non‐parametric estimation. The empirical analysis is applied to 15 stations located in southern Italy in regions that have a longstanding tradition of olive production. Using the variance explained, we find that an optimised pollen index is fairly well predicted by the pre‐flowering climatic data. We conclude that the optimised pollen index makes more parsimonious the modelling for predicting olive production.